Evolving markets, emerging solutions: Carbon Market Report 2025

The Carbon Market Institute’s annual report tracks Australia’s evolving carbon market, policy reforms, and investor sentiment. It unpacks shifts in credit pricing, demand, and project type, and explores how equity, integrity, and First Nations engagement are shaping a more sustainable market architecture.

Forecasting the voluntary carbon market (March 2025)

AlliedOffsets introduces a forecasting model for the VCM, simulating credit demand under various market conditions through 2030. Scenarios reflect divergent buyer behavior, regulatory signals, and investor sentiment. The baseline scenario projects steady growth in retirements, while an optimistic scenario sees near 1 GtCO₂e retired annually by 2030. It identifies market levers (e.g. Scope 3 frameworks, policy alignment, pricing clarity) that could influence uptake. The model helps guide strategy for developers, buyers, and intermediaries navigating future carbon market dynamics.

2025 CDR Market Survey: In Net Zero Standards We Trust

This 2025 report by CDR.fyi and Sylvera surveys both durable carbon dioxide removal suppliers and purchasers, revealing a significant price gap, reliance on net-zero standards to drive demand, and strong intent to scale durable CDR. However, growth remains limited by cost, quality uncertainty, and early-stage market constraints.

Evolving Markets, Emerging Solutions

This April 2025 report by the Carbon Market Institute and Westpac, examines how Australia’s carbon markets are maturing, exploring supply and demand trends, policy reforms, Indigenous leadership, technology innovation, and international opportunities for advancing decarbonisation.

Voluntary Carbon Markets: Potential Pitfalls and the Path Forward

This 2025 report by CCAG outlines the expectations and challenges facing the carbon dioxide removal (CDR) market, based on surveys of both suppliers and purchasers. It reveals a widening pricing gap, heavy reliance on net‑zero standards to drive demand, and a planned shift toward durable CDR, though scaling remains hindered by cost and quality uncertainties.

CORSIA: Market Developments and Forecast Scenarios

This AlliedOffsets report released in May 2025 forecasts rising demand for CORSIA-eligible carbon credits through 2035, warns of a major supply gap, and projects price hikes, urging greater credit issuance and stronger enforcement to avoid non-compliance risks for airlines.

Understanding Carbon Markets

MSCI released its Understanding Carbon Markets guide in December 2024. It explains how compliance and voluntary carbon markets work, the role of high-quality carbon credits, and how investors and companies use them to meet climate goals. It aims to equip stakeholders to engage effectively with carbon markets and drive global decarbonization.